In this episode of Talks at GS, Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani discusses the economic implications of the recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act with a group of leading economic experts. In this section, we focus on changes to per capita GDP and identify two distinct groups: the developed nations of North America, Western Europe, Japan, and the NIEs (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong); and the developing nations of China, India, Latin America, Eastern Europe/Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa. Please refresh the page and try again. What's Ahead for Europe's Economy in 2020? This is an important input for our forecast for the Indian economy. Our equity return forecast combined with the current record low 0.7% ten-year US Treasury yield suggests stocks have a greater than 90% likelihood of outperforming bonds through 2030. What’s the Outlook for the US Stock Market in 2020? You can change your choices at any time by visiting Your Privacy Controls. With mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have already started to implement—economic reopening. B2B PAYMENTS 2021 – WHAT WILL YOU CHANGE? Margaret Anadu of Goldman Sachs’ Urban Investment Group talks about how the pandemic is impacting small businesses in the US, and three entrepreneurs and graduates of Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses program share their personal stories. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Vice President, I'm speaking': Highlights from Kamala Harris and Mike Pence's vice presidential debate, Doing these 24 uncomfortable things will pay off forever, Yes, Apple just killed iTunes — here's what that means for your library of music, movies, and TV shows. News reports point to a sudden surge in layoffs and a collapse in spending, both historic in size and speed, as well as shutdowns of many schools, stores, offices, manufacturing plants, and construction sites. In the 10 years since the report was published, China's economic growth has accelerated; its GDP exceeded that of Japan in 2009. Colombia, Poland and Malaysia all possess great potential for sustainable long-term growth in the coming decades according to our country experts. Bandcamp is quietly becoming the destination for people who want to own/download music legally. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have revised down their estimates for the 2020 US economic growth rate to -4.6% from the previous forecast of -4.4 Yahoo is part of Verizon Media. This will increase to more than 50 % by 2020, and almost 60 % by 2030. Read More: Finally, the report gave some more specific predictions for key music companies. I wonder if they’re including Bandcamp in those download numbers? Government deficits, debt issuance and debt levels are set to surge as countries race to ease the economic impact of the coronacrisis. Eastern and African countries will grow. Today In Digital-First Banking: Revolut Rolls Out Goals Feature For Youth; Bank of Korea To Start Piloting Cryptocurrency Distribution, Philippine Government Considers Digital Bank Limits, India’s Reliance Jio Tackles Drop In Active Users, Bitcoin Daily: SEC Warns Consumers Of Crypto-Trading Scams; Hamilton FinTech Launches Jefferson Stablecoin, Uber Reaches $2.65B Deal To Buy Postmates. It improved the paid streaming revenue outlook from $27.1 billion to $27.5 billion. This percentage began to shrink in 2000 and is expected to drop to almost 40 % by 2030. Figure 3.3 shows the 2030 forecast of GDP shares (in US dollars) by country and region, based on this model. Our model … At the same time, income levels in developing nations are rising. Goldman Sachs economists and experts share insights on macro trends shaping the global economy. It noted Universal Music Group’s current valuation of between €25.1 billion and €35.2 billion ($28 billion to $40 billion). The world is, perhaps, becoming flatter, but it is a long way from being flat. In October 2003, Goldman Sachs published a report entitled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050.” This report predicted that China's GDP would surpass Japan's by 2015, and that, by 2040, it would overtake that of the U.S., becoming the largest in the world; India's economy was predicted to be the same size as Japan's around 2030. Having achieved that goal, companies then expanded into lower-ranked developing economies, although on a smaller scale. In the new Music in the Air report, Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast to global music revenue of $45 billion. Please refresh the page and try again. Goldman Sachs said the new restrictions imposed by some states to help curb fresh outbreaks of the coronavirus could help, a report published by a team led by economist Jan Hatzius on Saturday said. Goldman just put out a long-term forecast that sees 90% chance stocks beat bonds over 10 years Published Wed, Jul 15 2020 8:36 AM EDT Pippa Stevens @PippaStevens13 These estimates were generated by reverse-engineering of calculations for growth factors, i.e., by forecasting investments in labor and capital, and then adding total factor productivity (TFP) to calculate potential economic growth. Accordingly, any assumptions we made on TFP are not likely to have much of a negative impact on the accuracy of the results of our forecast. The forecasts look dire for both physical formats and downloads in the Goldman assessment. Coronavirus has pushed the global economy into a recession of historic proportions and halted the longest-lasting equity bull market on record. From the perspective of Japanese corporations, the global strategy till date has entailed expansion in western nations with economic environments similar to Japan's. But absent herd immunity or a vaccine, such reopenings increase the risk of a resurgence. It’s hard to make a long-term forecast for stock returns when some of the companies that will likely be driving returns 10 years from now haven’t even been founded. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! We estimate these entities in aggregate had a 44% portfolio allocation to US equities … Since 1952, when equity allocations have been between 40% and 45%, the subsequent 10-year annualized return for the S&P 500 has averaged 6.5%.”, “Our analysis implies annualized S&P 500 total return during the coming decade will equal 4.7% if the dividend yield in 2030 remains roughly unchanged from the current level of approximately 2.0%.”, “S&P 500 returns during the next decade will depend on the pace of GDP growth and how much time the US economy spends in contraction … Our Monte Carlo simulation of potential equity returns during the next decade incorporates various economic growth scenarios. Watch Video, Goldman Sachs Research expects a gradual pickup in eurozone growth from its current pace of 0.2% to 1.1% for 2020. Goldman Sachs economists have revised their forecast for 2020's economy downwards, but still think things could be back on track by around September, Bloomberg reports. Masters of modernization share insights and answer questions during a mix of intimate fireside chats and vibrant virtual roundtables. But there are other ways to reduce infections, and Goldman Sachs Research argues that a national mandate to wear face masks in public settings could partially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP. As a simple explanation of our model structure, we first determine investment in labor by forecasting the future working-age population (those between 20 and 65 years of age) using UN population estimates. Goldman used and averaged five different approaches to estimate the 6% return for stocks into the next decade. By 2030, the per capita GDP of Latin America will be approximately $30,000, and that of China will rise to about $20,000. Furthermore, it is rare for a country to have an average long-term TFP growth rate of more than 2 %, and it is hard to imagine that political instability, i.e., wars, or other large external shocks causing negative TFP would not occur. At the same time, whether corporate bankruptcies could derail the economic recovery is a key concern. ... Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients Thursday. Population aging is seen in all developed nations, although the ratio of the elderly in the populations of Europe, North America, and the NIEs will all average around 40 %. Goldman’s latest set of projections look at more than 70 countries globally and cover 90 per cent of current world GDP. Investors should continue to favour stocks over bonds from now until at least 2030, according to Goldman Sachs. Some error occurred. Susie Scher, co-head of the Global Financing Group in Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division, discusses how companies are accessing capital in an uncertain environment. Find the latest Goldman Sachs Target Date 2030 (GTAJX) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing. The power of the internet allows people to experience such a flattened world. What are the indicators you are looking at which have turned green to amber or even red that is leading to that kind of a dire forecast? With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery is Top of Mind.

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