Interested in learning more? High-level findings of the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 are available in the free executive summary below.

Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy. %���� Global auto sales do not recover to 2019 levels until 2025. endobj

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. 164, Figure 288: Historical annual distance traveled by passenger vehicles in the U.S. divided by GDP per capita……………………………………………………………………………………. 56, Figure 102: Europe total annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain….. 57, Figure 103: Europe share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain 57, Figure 104: Price and volume of all passenger vehicles sold in the U.S………………….. 58, Figure 105: Percentage of buyers willing to pay for a passenger vehicle at a given price point in the U.S…………………………………………………………………………………………. endobj

Shared mobility operators have also suffered, but will rebound quickly on the back of food delivery, logistics and micromobility services. 144, Figure 262: Growth in emissions per country, 2018-2040………………………………….

7, Figure 16: EV share of global vehicle fleet by segment………………………………………… 7, Figure 17: Annual global EV sales by segment…………………………………………………… 8, Figure 18: Global EV fleet by segment…………………………………………………………….. 8, Figure 19: Electricity demand outlook for selected regions by segment………………….. 9, Figure 20: Oil demand from road transport………………………………………………………. EVs’ share of global sales is relatively flat in 2020 at around 3%, but then continues rising and hits 7% in 2023 with sales of around 5.4 million. By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment. Many solar factories in China are starting to resume production, suggesting that concerns about supplies of PV components could soon begin to ease. <>

Nearly 60% of U.S. households have two or more cars – and many have the ability to install home charging – making them ideal adopters as EV economics, range and recharging options continue to improve. Some 30% of global two-wheeler sales are already electric. 52, Figure 95: EV sales needed in Europe to meet EU emissions targets, pre Covid-19….. 53, Figure 96: Share of EVs needed to meet Europe’s 2025 and 2030 CO2 emissions targets……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 54, Figure 97: Europe annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain…………………………… 55, Figure 98: Europe share of total annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain………… 55, Figure 99: Passenger EV share of total annual sales in Europe…………………………….. 56, Figure 100: Europe passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………………………… 56, Figure 101: Europe share of total passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain…………………. To provide a secure and reliable service, we send our email with MailChimp, which means we store email addresses and analytical data on their servers. 37, Figure 66: Share of kilometers traveled in private and shared vehicles by market, 2040 38, Figure 67: Global share of new vehicle sales with different automation levels………… 39, Figure 68: Global new vehicle sales with different automation levels……………………. 28, Figure 51: Covid-19 impacts on ride-hailing use in selected Chinese cities……………… 29, Figure 52: Simplified passenger EV forecast methodology………………………………….. 31, Figure 53: Breakdown of vehicle kilometers traveled by segment in selected regions, 2019………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Around 2023, lithium nickel manganese cobalt aluminum oxide (NMCA) will start to enter the EV market. <> Mobility is at the core of modern civilization, and the way people and goods move impacts many aspects of life. 138, Figure 250: Oil demand growth forecast by region………………………………………….. 139, Figure 251: Oil demand forecast by fuel……………………………………………………….. 139, Figure 252: Oil demand forecast for passenger vehicles, commercial trucks and two- and three-wheelers by region………………………………………………………………………….. 139, Figure 253: Share of oil displaced by electric and fuel-cell vehicles, by region, by mode and by fuel…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 140, Figure 254: Global electricity demand by electric-vehicle segment…………………….. 141, Figure 255: Share of electricity demand from different electric-vehicle segments, including China……………………………………………………………………………………….. 141, Figure 256: Share of electricity demand from different electric-vehicle segments, excluding China………………………………………………………………………………………. Automakers and large fleet operators are accelerating their investments in electrification as part of their long-term climate commitments, and to meet near-term policy requirements. 66, Figure 129: India EV share of long-term vehicle sales by segment………………………… 66, Figure 130: Electric three-wheeler fleet outlook for India………………………………….. 67, Figure 131: Japan passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain in fiscal year 2018…………….. 68, Figure 132: Japan short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………. Most of this is from two- and three-wheelers and buses in China. Skip to content Bloomberg the Company & Its Products The Company & its Products Bloomberg Terminal Demo Request Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login Bloomberg Anywhere Login Bloomberg Customer Support Customer Support 115, Figure 219: Lithium-ion battery-pack price outlook…………………………………………. Fuel economy regulations, quota systems and city policies all play a growing role. 91, Figure 178: Share of EV in commercial vehicle sales in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………….. 91, Figure 179: Share of EV in commercial vehicle fleet in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea……………………………………………………………………………….. 91, Figure 180: Share of EV in commercial vehicle sales in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and S. Korea…………………………………………………………………………………….. 92, Figure 181: Share of EV in commercial vehicle fleet in the U.S., China, Europe, India, Japan and S. Korea…………………………………………………………………………………….. 92, Figure 182: E-bus share of global bus sales……………………………………………………… 95, Figure 183: Global e-bus fleet………………………………………………………………………. By 2040 passenger EVs consume 1,290TWh, commercial EVs consume 389TWh, e-buses consume 216TWh and electric two-wheelers consume 69TWh. 58, Figure 106: Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market……………………………………………….. 59, Figure 107: U.S. plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales…………………………………………. © 2020 Bloomberg Finance L.P. All rights reserved. Read more about the findings from the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020. BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. Interested? endobj Your email address will not be published.

Commercial vehicle sales also fall, but recover by 2022 due to rising e-commerce and growing freight demand in China and emerging economies. We expect most of this can be provided profitably by the private sector as utilization rates rise in the 2020s, but government support may be needed in some regions.

In 2040, there are still more kilometers driven globally by internal combustion passenger vehicles than EVs. 144, Figure 260: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation by energy source.. 144, Figure 261: Total global CO2 emissions from road transportation by region…………. Cumulative investment in all types of charging hardware and installation reaches $500 billion globally by 2040. Privacy | Terms | Disclaimer | 沪ICP备17049401号-3, Want to learn how we help our clients put it all together? ​​​​​ 9 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 –Statkraft Nordic Launch Source: BNEF Sales Fleet Two tipping points 0 20 40 60 80 100 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Million Internal combustion Fuel cell Plug-in Hybrid Battery 0.0 Electric 0.2 0 New EV battery chemistries are being adopted faster than in the past. As a result FCVs achieve higher adoption rates in commercial vehicles and buses. 149, Figure 269: China cumulative private charger installations and percentage of EVs sold with a private charger………………………………………………………………………………. BloombergNEF clients have access to the full findings and charts from the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 as listed below. By the mid-2020s EVs reach up-front price parity – without subsidies – with internal combustion vehicles in most segments, but there is wide variation by region. We measure how often our emails are opened, and which links our readers click.

40, Figure 70: U.S. annual passenger vehicle sales by automation level……………………… 41, Figure 71: India annual passenger vehicle sales by automation level……………………. Interested in learning more? 136, Figure 245: Commercial-vehicle applications………………………………………………….

3 0 obj We have added a new section on how this will impact vehicle sales, kilometers traveled, freight demand, shared mobility and the shape of the recovery ahead. Nevertheless, the temporary standstill will have an impact on the global solar market, as the implementation of some projects will probably be postponed until next year. Lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 87% from 2010 to 2019, with the volume-weighted average hitting $156/kWh.

Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid, Allen Tom Abraham, Kwasi Ampofo, Nannan Kou, Will Edmonds, Dr. Ian Berryman, Josh Landess, Jinghong Lyu. Some near-term EV model launches will be delayed, but manufacturers so far are sticking to their long-term electrification commitments. The ratio of EVs to public charging points varies widely today but converges at around 40-50 for Europe and the U.S. by 2040. 50, Figure 92: Europe short-term annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain……………. Automakers focus their passenger EV efforts on the markets with the most stringent regulations for the next 10 years, leading to low rates of EV adoption in the Rest of World category. 39, Figure 69: Share of new vehicle sales with advanced emergency braking and lane keeping assist, by market……………………………………………………………………………. 181. Small vans and trucks increase in importance, with demand rising more than 50% by 2040. Automakers and large fleet operators are taking long-term decarbonization targets increasingly seriously.

Click here to see the full list of charts and figures included in the client report. Oil demand from passenger vehicles is hit hard by Covid-19 and never recovers to 2019 levels. Then 150kW chargers become the speed of choice for fast charging, but higher speeds of 350kW and up also play a small role. China accounts for the bulk of two-wheeler electrification to date, but sales are growing rapidly in markets like Taiwan, Vietnam and India. Meanwhile, urbanization continues its steady march around the world, leading to increased concerns around congestion and urban air quality, and changing consumer preferences. Many of these are aspirational targets and it is not clear how they will be implemented, but a few are starting to receive legal backing. Diesel and eventually hydrogen fuel cell buses round out the rest of the fleet by 2040 in areas: Road freight demand continues to grow to 2040, but the growth is uneven between segments and countries. 62, Figure 118: U.S. share of annual passenger vehicle distance traveled by drivetrain…. 45, Figure 81: China passenger EV sales by user type…………………………………………….. 46, Figure 82: Proportion of required NEV credits to ICE passenger car production and imports…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47, Figure 83: Estimated share of EV sales needed to meet NEV credit targets……………. 22, Figure 45: Medium-term outlook for vehicle sales, by segment…………………………… 23, Figure 46: EV share of new passenger vehicle sales………………………………………….. 25, Figure 47: Global passenger EV sales by type…………………………………………………… 26, Figure 48: Global passenger EV sales by region………………………………………………… 26, Figure 49: Passenger EV fleet forecast, 2019 outlook versus 2020 outlook…………….. 26, Figure 50: Covid-19 impacts on public transit use in selected cities………………………. build the sensor supply chain to enable this.

59, Figure 110: U.S. short-term EV share of total annual passenger vehicle sales…………. Road transport oil demand in Europe and the U.S. has already peaked.

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