Complementing industrial and trade policies, states should return to public investment, a major source of infrastructure spending in most countries.
Neither path is …
“Change was promptly promised but the rules and practices governing the distribution of income and economic power have remained largely the same,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, UNCTAD’s director of the division on globalization and development strategies. Combating workplace stereotypes and otherwise fostering and facilitating access to core sector employment, especially through social infrastructure investments that better enable women to combine paid work and their responsibilities for care, will need to be directly addressed. Every year, an estimated $88.6 billion, which is equivalent to 3.7% of Africa’s GDP, leaves the continent in the form of illicit capital, according to UN trade and development agency UNCTAD’s Economic Development in Africa Report 2020, launched on Monday. The report uses available data – on China and the United States – to illustrate how, under different policy choices, a dual economy can reduce or increase polarization, highlighting a critical feature for a better recovery from the COVID-19 recession. Curb capital flight to help fund COVID-19 response in Africa. Corporate defaults therefore reached new heights in the first half of 2020, in particular in the US and the euro area, reflecting both falling earnings due to the COVID-19 shock and their long-term addiction to debt-financing. The Trade and Development Report 2020 by UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Tuesday that the world economy is experiencing a deep recession amid a still-unchecked pandemic. Such investment is particularly important in developing countries, for higher value-added activities to flourish. But given the constraints on spending in many developing countries, significant international support will be needed to ensure they have the required fiscal space. With many countries unprepared to respond to a health pandemic, lockdown seemed to be the only plausible way to protect lives and preserve health systems. In a recent study from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it can be observed that Africa has lost nearly $89 billion on an annual basis, in illicit financial flows - which include tax evasion, theft, and diversion of public funds - adding that this figure amounts to more than what the continent receives in international development aid.
But this will not happen unless better multilateral governance promotes and coordinates a global programme of redistribution and recovery. In all countries the rules of the economy need to ensure that workers gain a fairer share of value added, the report says. He revealed that the value of the $6tr is very huge equivalent to the sizes of 3 large economies of Brazil, India, and Mexico, or 20 times the size of the economy in Egypt, “Global trade is expected to shrink 20% in 2020, just as foreign direct investment (FDI) will decline by about 40% in 2020,” he said, “There has also been a decrease in the remittances of overseas workers, and subsequently a severe decline will occur in tourism and oil sectors due to the weak global demand.”. He mentioned that the impact on global employment is stark, stating that the International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that the crisis is currently threatening 500 million jobs worldwide. Employment and real wages will have to rise significantly to correct the distributional imbalances that have built up under hyperglobalization, but building more inclusive economies post-COVID-19 will also require directly tackling various forms of discrimination, including by race and gender, that continue to segment societies and have a detrimental impact on future development prospects. The UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) 2020 report warns that a bold, targeted fiscal expansion, led by the advanced economies, is the “only way to build a fair and resilient economic recovery from COVID-19” and put the world on a path towards delivering the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Al Khafif said that there is also a widening gap between income and wealth distribution, and hence inequality occurs. Debt levels across the world, in both the public and private sectors, will have risen significantly from the historically high levels registered before the crisis. It is precisely by limiting public investment that fiscal austerity has hampered structural transformation and sometimes led to its reversal. Al Khafif said that much more ambitious multilateral measures will be required if a global crisis is to be transformed into a global recovery including, expanding the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to support national development strategies in developing countries through a truly internationally governed reserve system. There is a great possibility that more than one hundred million jobs will disappear by the end of this year. Such an authority would build a repository of institutional memory on sovereign debt restructurings.
However, it will be uneven within and across countries and uncertainty will persist.
Countries can experience fast job creation, weak growth of demand and sluggish productivity. Smaller and open developing economies, at all levels of income, will need financial assistance from the international community to preserve and expand domestic fiscal space. Explained: Sales Tax on used cars, how will it work? UNCTAD Trade And Development Report, 2020 UNCTAD has released its annual trade and development report.
Estimates for the year point to a generalized global recession matching the Great Depression of the 1930s. Cooperation will be crucial; sustainable development depends on a global policy climate that remains conducive to cross-border investment. Explore how green growth can transform the world. Related, trade policy must be used to favour this effort, encouraging competition at the higher end of the productivity ladder rather than serve as a weapon aimed at labour’s bargaining power.
Building on long-standing research, UNCTAD worries that polarization is now hard-wired into the hyperglobalized growth model in both developed and developing countries. In the meantime, billionaire stockholders that own the vast bulk of corporate stocks profiting from the COVID-19 shock rather than faltering under it, have seen their personal wealth grow by over $500 bn in the US alone in the first months of the pandemic. It can also accelerate and help manage structural transformation, helping to foster technological upgrading and productivity gains, underscoring the interdependence between an economy’s income distribution and its growth performance. This can be tackled head-on through labour market regulation that supports employees’ compensation.
More generally, proactive social policy must go beyond offering safety nets or floors designed to pick up (or stop from falling) those pushed behind.
Al Khafif’s remarks came during a virtual conference, on Tuesday, to launch UNCTAD’s annual trade report, entitled Trade and Development Report 2020.. The coronavirus pandemic has upended public balance sheets, at a time when the global economy was already running into a wall of debt.
Al Khafif saud that at present, the initiative by the G20 and the Paris Club to suspend bilateral debt service repayments for a select number of vulnerable developing countries from May to December 2020 is the main deal on the table. The lives of future generations and of the planet itself will depend on the choices we all take over the coming months. As a result, the world has witnessed a severe and unprecedented crisis, the true dimensions of which have not been fully demonstrated, Revealing the pandemic’s impacts on global economies, Al Khafif revealed that UNCTAD expects global economies to decline by 4% over the year, equivalent to $6trn. Al Khafif also said that the key strategy to confronting the effects of the coronavirus will take place by confronting the problems that were present in the pre-pandemic period. Covid-19 has served as a reminder that we live in a closely interdependent world that brings opportunities but also carries dangers.
From global pandemic to prosperity for all: avoiding another lost decade, UNCTAD - Palais des Nations, 8-14, Av. This would, moreover, help to promote competition in a highly concentrated private market,” he said.
As a result, Covid-19 obliges us to think carefully about what makes for healthy and resilient communities, at the global level as much as the local level and take to heart the lessons we have learned in the last decade. Al Khafif’s remarks came during a virtual conference, on Tuesday, to launch UNCTAD’s annual trade report, entitled Trade and Development Report 2020..
The lockdown has parachuted economists into unfamiliar territory, as the current situation is not like a war economy nor is it traditional supply-side constraints or a financial crisis threatening banking sector, said the UNCTAD 'Trade and Development Report 2020 – From global pandemic to prosperity for all: Avoiding another lost decade'.
Unemployment will be on an upward trend, more and more companies will be facing the threat of bankruptcy; supply chains will be fragile; confidence will be shaken; demand will be weak. The policy cornerstone of a better recovery is income redistribution, which can be achieved by putting full employment and real wage growth at the centre of both macroeconomic and sectoral policies.
“What is required now is not a submissive retreat into austerity, but a strong collective voice to support sustained and coordinated state-led fiscal expansion around the globe,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, director of UNCTAD’s division on globalization and development strategies.
This perverse form of structural change undermines wage growth, setting off a vicious cycle of higher inequality, lower productivity and weaker demand. It emphasises the importance of Keynesianism and cites Post-Keynesian authors such as Joan Robinosn, Nicholas Kaldor, Wynne … This year's Trade and Development Report argues that the global economic crisis caused by Covid-19 throws up a stark choice: continue misguided policy choices or collectively chart a new path that leads from recovery to a more resilient, more equal and more environmentally sustainable world in line with the ambition of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
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