M&G

1.18 Seasonal adjustment2 is the process of removing seasonal and calendar effects from a time series. Early estimates of quarterly GDP are also referred to as advance, flash, or preliminary estimates. If changes from the same period of the previous year are used, turning points in the data show up with some delay, which in some circumstances can be substantial.

The Manual offers a comprehensive review of data sources, statistical methods, and compilation techniques to derive official estimates of quarterly GDP. Finally, a brief summary of the changes to the 2001 edition is provided. The new edition contains one additional chapter on specific QNA compilation issues.

This Manual has been drafted to help countries establish or strengthen quarterly national accounts that meet users needs. Volume can be contrasted with quantity, which is limited to data that can be expressed in physical units.

By that time, the economy in this example has just gone through a second downturn. 1.4 Several countries with advanced QNA have expanded their systems to include a complete set of quarterly accounts by institutional sector.

1.13 A criticism of QNA is that quarterly GDP is not a good business-cycle indicator, because GDP includes activities such as government and agriculture that do not necessarily respond to changes in the business cycle. While QNA estimates based on unadjusted data allow seasonal adjustment, the reverse—deriving unadjusted QNA estimates from seasonally adjusted data—is not possible.

The handbook on quarterly national accounts, explicitly required in the European System of Accounts (ESA 1995) and highly demanded by Member States, represents a first manual on harmonisation of quarterly national accounts as an integral part of the system of national accounts.
1.17 The importance of presenting monthly and quarterly data as time series for the purposes of analyzing trends and turning points is illustrated in Annex 1.1. The discussion on data sources in Chapter 3 focuses on components of GDP by production, by expenditure, and by income. Also, compilers should educate users about the analytical possibilities and other benefits of the QNA data. 1.28 Benchmarking has two main aspects, which in the QNA context are commonly looked upon as two different topics: (a) quarterly distribution7 of annual data to construct time series of historical QNA estimates (“back series”) and to revise preliminary QNA estimates to align them to new annual data when they become available, and (b) extrapolation to update the QNA series by linking in the quarterly source data (the indicators) for the most current period (“forward series”). Early estimates may be more limited in coverage of the 2008 SNA variables (for instance, they may cover variables from the production account only) or be published in a more aggregated form.

Compilers must be candid about these issues with the public and pursue transparency of sources and methods for compiling QNA. This problem is known as the “step problem.” To avoid the step problem, several mathematical techniques have been developed.

The chapter is intended particularly for those starting a new system as well as those with existing systems that do not yet have seasonally adjusted data.

The average delay can be shown to be around half a year in discrete data and around three-quarters of a year in cumulative data. Strategic Issues in Quarterly National Accounts, 4.

For the general public, the occasion of new releases, which often brings the QNA to public attention, can be used to highlight points of interest.

For instance, data covering January–March, January–June, January–September, and so on.

These practices are all required or encouraged by the IMF’s data dissemination standards.8 In addition, electronic release of the complete time series, not only the data for the most recent periods, will make it easier for users to update their databases.

The growth during 2012 first emerges in the ANA when the annual estimates for 2013 become available. 1.24 Seasonal adjustment may also assist compilers in detecting abnormalities in the data and allow better checks on plausibility of data (in particular, growth rates). Benchmarking also arises when the annual estimates are anchored to more comprehensive and detailed surveys and censuses that are performed only every few years. GDP quarterly national accounts, UK Statistical bulletins Revised quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK.

Although this basic axiom never fully applies (unless there are no price changes), in times of low inflation, it does not affect the usefulness of the ANA.

For seasonally adjusted data, inconsistencies with ANA may derive from the application of seasonal adjustment procedures. However, in situations of high inflation, adding up current price data over a year becomes meaningless because the prices vary so much within the year. Chapters 3 and 4 on data sources have been amended accordingly. This title contains information about the following subjects.

Thus, for general national accounts issues, readers are referred to the 2008 SNA. intermediate consumption An outline of the manual is given. The shortcuts usually include use of data for only one or two months of the quarter for some or all components, with the missing month(s) estimated by extrapolation using mechanical methods such as those discussed in Chapter 10. 1.1 QNA constitute a system of integrated quarterly time series coordinated through an accounting framework. Early estimates only differ from subsequent QNA estimates in that they use a higher proportion of such methods.

Examples of such payments are dividends, end-of-year or vacation bonuses, and taxes on the use of fixed assets and other taxes on production.

These short-term indicators provide valuable information on specific aspects of current economic developments. Opinions differ on the usefulness of seasonally adjusted data and whether seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation should be the responsibility of compilers of official statistics.

1.6 This chapter discusses the main purposes of QNA and the position of QNA between ANA and short-term indicators. BellW.R.
Countries have adopted different approaches to revisions in response to their own circumstances.

Volume can also be contrasted with estimates in real terms which refer (in precise national accounts terminology) to measures of the purchasing power of an item (i.e., in reference to prices of other items). Chapters 6–8 discuss in detail specific methods required for compiling QNA.

Quarterly National Accounts Manual (2017 Edition), ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Industries - Hospitality, Travel and Tourism, Insurance - Risk Assessment and Management, Environmental Conservation and Protection, Ecosystems and Habitats - Oceans and Seas, Public Policy - Social Services and Welfare, International Relations - Trade and Tariffs, Public Policy - City Planning and Urban Development, Power Resources - Alternative and Renewable, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, 2.

Revisions provide the possibility to incorporate new and more accurate information into the estimates, and thus to improve their accuracy, without introducing breaks in the time series. QNA adopt the same principles, definitions, and structure as the annual national accounts (ANA). Most of this manual addresses issues, concepts, and techniques that apply to the whole system of national accounts.

The new edition—which upgrades the first edition, published in 2001—improves and expands the previous content based on recent methodological advances, best country practices, and suggestions received from QNA compilers and experts. When annual SUT are available, a quarterly supply and use model is proposed to transform aggregate GDP discrepancies into detailed product imbalances.

1.32 Revisions are undertaken to provide users with data that are as timely and accurate as possible. Educating users, while valuable for most statistical areas, is particularly important for QNA because of their policy relevance and technical complexity. From this analysis, compilers can derive valuable information on the magnitude and directions of GDP revisions, identify weaknesses in the compilation process, and implement the necessary improvements. Uses additional data to provide a more precise indication of economic growth than the first estimate. The QNA also provides an integrated framework for analyzing economic statistics, thus allowing the examination and analysis of developments and behavior. Using growth rates from the corresponding quarter of the previous year is not an adequate solution for business-cycle analysis, as explained above (see Annex 1.1 for further explanation of this issue). An update of the manual was required in view of the many developments in the compilation of QNA that have taken place since 2001, and also to make the manual fully consistent with the international statistical standards resulting from the adoption of the 2008 SNA. Low-frequency payments are payments made on an annual basis or in infrequent installments over the year. The numerical example provided there shows that in measures of change from the same period of the previous year, turning points in the data can be seen with a systematic delay, which in most circumstances is substantial. 1.26 To avoid confusion about interpreting economic developments, it is essential that the QNA are consistent with the ANA.6 Differences in growth rates between QNA and ANA cause confusion in the users and uncertainty about the reliability of the actual measurements. On the other hand, the adjustments may obscure discrepancies and abnormalities in the unadjusted data that do not relate to seasonality.


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